Original story published by Jake McKibbin on Brewer Fanatic.
MILWAUKEE — Giving up on Jakob Junis in his hybrid role for Frankie Montas and his 5.01 ERA this season is an out-of-left-field move from the Brewers, but does it really upgrade their playoff push?
Trading for two players with an ERA over 5.00 doesn’t usually fit into the trade deadline plans for a playoff competitor, and unlike Nick Mears, there has been no obvious misfortune in Frankie Montas conceding these runs, with peripheral metrics backing them up. Montas has some assets that were highlighted in his start to the season, with the ability to generate a lot of ground balls on that split finger and get quick outs, carrying him deep into games, but the other pitches in his arsenal have been unsuccessful to say the least. Montas has struggled with both generating strikeouts and limiting walks on the year.
The Brewers had a surplus of talent in one area and a dearth in another. The surplus was in their long relief corps, with DL Hall stretched out at Nashville and Joe Ross positioned to complement Bryse Wilson, depending on whether they go with a five- or six-man rotation down the stretch.
Hall hasn’t thrown over 62 pitches since April, and the Brewers may now be seeing him as the ideal man to replace Jakob Junis in the pen, with his fastball having regained some of its former vigor. There are only so many occasions where that longer relief is needed, and as such, Junis (in his current role) may have been redundant, especially with the Brewers’ reluctance to stretch him out further with concerns over his “scratchy shoulder”.
Montas’s splitter is a truly elite pitch, and the Brewers may see a way of restructuring his sequencing and locations to get more out of it and hide the weakness in his three-fastball mix, especially his cutter. He’s getting a little less horizontal cut than in his prime years but the real issue is command:
Results-wise, Montas has two effective pitches in the slider and splitter, and by tweaking the usage of the four-seamer and sinker he may be able to get them by well enough to take advantage of those off speed offerings
Whether Montas is exactly what the Brewers needed is arguable. I’m not entirely sure he presents an upgrade on Ross, should they stick with a five-man rotation. Joey Wiemer has had a hot July without the high exit velocities to assure anyone that it can be consistent. Junis was valuable, but may be replaced by Hall on his return as a longer reliever. As such, they haven’t traded a whole lot to get Montas.
He can provide length and quick outs that should play up with the Brewers’ premium “run-prevention unit,” as they like to call it, and Montas has the experience to slot quickly into the Brewers rotation. All that being noted, the Brewers’ biggest need at the deadline was a pitcher they trusted to get outs in a playoff game against the best hitters in the league. Yes, that comes with a hefty cost, but the Brewers offense–with a firing Jackson Chourio, a (potentially) rejuvenated Christian Yelich and the likes of Willy Adames, William Contreras and Rhys Hoskins finding form at the right time–is capable of making a deep run.
Montas doesn’t appear to be that frontline pitcher. His sheer stuff and velocity have ticked down since his shoulder surgery last season, and even if it does work out, they’ll have another pitcher hovering around an earned run average of 4.00, rather than one who’s capable of going a month with a sub-3.00 and who can strike out elite opponents. They’re still missing that caliber of pitcher, and with the offense not all that consistent from one day to another, this doesn’t instill a lot of confidence in the Brewers making a deep playoff run–barring a further addition.
