MILWAUKEE — As we approach the end of the 2022-23 NFL regular season, Green Bay Packers fans are clinging to the edge of their seats as the team carries a three-game winning streak into two NFC North battles to decide their Playoff fate. If this ESPN simulation model is correct, the Packers will manage to overcome a daunting mid-season losing streak to reach the postseason once more.
ESPN’s used its Football Power Index (FPI) to predict the final two regular-season games for every team in the NFL, showcasing what their model suggests would be the 2023 NFL Playoff bracket. Under this simulation, the Packers managed to stun both the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions by a combined 34 points to sneak back into the Wild Card position.
The projection suggested the Packers would secure a seven-point victory against the division-leading Vikings before stomping the Detroit Lions 37 to 10 in Week 18.
Of the limited scenarios in which the Packers reach the Playoffs this season, the most likely outcome is twin victories for the Packers and a loss for the Washington Commanders against either the Cleveland Browns in Week 17 or the Dallas Cowboys in Week 18. This ESPN simulation saw the Commanders thwart the Browns just to be dominated by the Cowboys 47 to 7 in the final game of the season.
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This allowed the Green Bay Packers to clinch the seventh seed in the NFC Playoff Picture. Here’s what ESPN Analytics specialist Seth Walder had to say about the Packers defying the odds in this simulation:
“Following a 40-33 Week 12 loss to the Eagles, the Packers looked done. At the time, the FPI gave Green Bay only a 3% chance to reach the postseason. But the thing about a 3% chance? It can still happen, and that’s what occurs here. The Packers go on a five-game winning streak to close out the year with a 9-8 record — finishing with a win over the Lions (while the Commanders lose to the Cowboys) to get into the postseason. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers aren’t out just yet.”
This would pit the Packers against a formidable No. 2 seed in the San Francisco 49ers — the top team in the NFC West.
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