MILWAUKEE — The final Marquette Law School Poll of Wisconsin voters before the 2024 Election found that Kamala Harris holds a narrow lead with 50% of votes to Donald Trump’s 49% of votes; reflecting a shift from the 4% gap found between the two candidates in previous results.
When accounting for 5% of voters who considered themselves undecided, Harris still leads by one percent with 48% to Trump’s 47%. When considering the wider ballot, a crucial 5% of voters remain in support of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., whose name will remain on the ballot in Wisconsin despite withdrawing from the race.
After holding steady around 11% of respondents since July, the most recent poll conducted between Oct. 16 & 24 saw 17% of people saying they don’t know which of the candidates is more likely to win. However, 45% responded they believe Harris will win with 37% of respondents expecting Trump to win.
There are also clear divides in the demographic reports, where men tend to favor Trump by 12% and women tend to favor Harris by 14%, according to the Marquette Law Poll.
In Wisconsin, the poll would indicate Harris is favored by people in the age ranges of 18-29 and 60+, whereas there is an even 50/50 split for voters 30-44 and a 55 to 45 differential in favor of Trump for people in the 45-59 age range.
White Wisconsin voters, who account for 90% of the sample size recorded in this poll, favored Trump by one percentage point. Harris is heavily favored by Black voters (82 to 18) with a tighter margin in Hispanic voters (53 to 47). Voters who identified as ‘Other’ favored Harris by a margin of 59 to 40.
College-educated voters and voters in ‘Principal Cities’ heavily favored Harris, while non-college-educated voters, suburban communities, towns and rural communities favored Trump, per MU Law School Poll results.
Professor Charles Franklin who leads the Marquette Law School Poll told WTMJ’s Wisconsin Afternoon News that when it comes to the presidential election poll, regardless of who leads and who follows, there are no definitive answers with the polls come Election Day.
“We really have seen a much closer race this year than we’ve seen in 2020 and 2016,” said Franklin. “We were off by 4 points in 2020 understating Trump’s vote. In 2016, we were off by nearly seven points.”
With the current polls being in the margin of error, Franklin tell voters this: the polls won’t tell who wins on Election Day.
“All polling has this margin of error around our results,” Franklin said. “We shouldn’t put much stake in who’s up by a point or two points.”
For more information on the Marquette Law Poll, click here.
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