MILWAUKEE – Among both likely and registered voters, the race for the White House appears to be a dead heat according to the latest findings from the Marquette University Law School.
Today’s poll showed Republican nominee Donald Trump held a 50-49 lead over presumptive Democratic nominee Kamala Harris among registered voters. When looking at likely voters, Harris held the same 50-49 advantage.
Expanding the race to include independent candidates, Harris’s lead widened over Trump; the results were Harris 45%, Trump 43%. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 8%, Libertarian Chase Oliver 1%, Green Party candidate Jill Stein 1%, Constitution Party candidate Randall Terry 0%, and independent Cornel West 0% among registered Wisconsin voters. Among likely voters, the results went Harris 46%, Trump 45%, Kennedy 6%, Oliver 1%, Stein 1%, Terry 0%, and West 0%.
Republican vice-presidential nominee JD Vance was seen favorably by 31% and unfavorably by 41%, with 29% saying they haven’t heard enough or don’t know. Vance was seen much more favorably by Republicans, but is viewed unfavorably by independents and especially Democrats. Information on Harris’s running mate Minnesota Governor Tim Walz wasn’t included since he was not officially named to the ticket
Respondents were also asked about the role President Joe Biden’s decision to drop out of the race has played in the race. When asked about the winner between Biden and Trump, 20% said Biden would definitely or probably win, while 69% said Trump would win. 79% of registered voters said Biden should have withdrawn from the race, while 15% said he should have continued as the Democratic nominee. Among Democrats, 91% said Biden should have withdrawn.
The poll also once again examined the race for one of Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate seats between incumbent Tammy Baldwin and challenger Eric Hovde. Between both likely and registered voters, Baldwin held a lead over Hovde 52-47 and 53-46, respectively.
Overall, voter enthusiasm for the November general election appears to be on the rise; 61% of respondents say they are very enthusiastic about voting, up from 46% in June.
The poll was conducted July 24th through August 1st, and included interviewing 877 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.6 percentage points. The poll also included 801 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.8 percentage points.
Poll results concerning political questions will be released on Thursday, while opinions of the work of the US Supreme Court will come out Friday.
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