MILWAUKEE – The first major event of the 2024 Presidential cycle is complete with the Iowa caucuses Monday night. Former President Donald Trump took home the lion’s share with about 51% of the vote, with close competition from former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Gov. DeSantis took second place in the caucus with 21.3% of the vote, and former Gov. Haley taking third with 19%. Following the governors were entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson.
Dr. Julia Azari is a political science professor at Marquette University with a focus on American political campaigns, and says this outcome is likely to be reflective of the majority of the Republican voting base.
“This is the first of potentially many contests,” said Dr. Azari. “Iowa has become quite representative of what the Republican electorate looks like. But there are a number of other states to consider, like New Hampshire next week.”
Dr. Azari declined to make predictions as to how the race would look in the coming months, but said former President Trump is likely to continue performing at a high level.
“I’m comfortable saying Trump will continue to do well most of the time,” said Dr. Azari. “There’s nothing surprising here. He’s been ahead in the polls. He has name recognition. He is very popular in the Republican Party.”
As for the runners-up in the race, Dr. Azari called the second place a “Trump substitute”. Gov. DeSantis has been regarded by political analysts as a substitute for former President Trump, whereas Governor Haley is seen as an alternative to former President Trump. Going forward, voters will display what flavor of Republicanism they are interested in.
While the Iowa caucus is a significant part of the presidential race, Dr. Azari urged caution jumping to conclusions based on these early results. “One thing we need to be a little cautious about is applying these results to a broader theory about what is going to happen in November.”
The Republican New Hampshire Primary is Tuesday, January 23. The following primary will be South Carolina, Governor Haley’s home state.
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