Welcome to my first regular season notebook following the Brewers all season. On the heels of the first rainout of the season, I put together some interesting stats and observations of the first 11 games of the season. You can follow along all season on my social media, on X @Dom_Cotroneo and on Youtube @DomBrewersWTMJ. Without further adieu, let’s dive in.
William Contreras hits the ball hard … duh.
Many members of the Brewers coaching staff and front office feel William Contreras can become the best catcher in the National League, building off of a brilliant 2023 campaign. One of the things “Wild Bill” does better than anyone on the Brewers is hit the ball hard.
Sometimes, though, his hardest contact comes on ground balls – an area that he is trying to improve this season. Contreras led the league in GIDP last season with 23, but thus far he has only grounded into one. He also has found hits on the ground exceptionally better than league average the last two years.
Look at the improvement from in the heart of the cluster to on his own in the first quadrant. League average on ground balls has hovered around .245 since the start of last season (when the overhit was banned). What’s the easiest way to have a better batting average on ground balls? Hit them harder than anyone else.
Contreras thrives here, sitting at the 99th percentile with an average exit velocity of 98.5 MPH. As William improves his barrel rate by elevating the ball more often, we could see more days like Sunday vs the Mariners, where he came about a foot from having a three-homer game with three different batted ball directions.
Contreras is just warming up for what could be a repeat Silver Slugger campaign.
Brice Turang’s early “quantum leap”
Pat Murphy declared relatively early in Spring Training he believed in Brice Turang and called for the potential of a “quantum leap” this season. In addition to a much better batted ball profile, Turang also leads the Majors in stolen bases with seven.
Back to the batted ball profile, maybe it’s more about how much contact he is actually making. He has only whiffed 12% of the time this season, that’s a 96th percentile ranking and currently a nine-point improvement year-over-year.
He’s also be an extraordinary thorn in pitchers’ sides with two strikes. A year ago, Turang hit .169 when faced with a two-strike count. This year, he’s jumped to .250. While that’s not going to be sustainable, but being better than league average (.163) will certainly help his case.
Furthermore, doing damage against fastballs will be key for Turang moving forward. Last season, he was the worst qualified hitter in baseball against 4-seam fastballs using a metric called “run value.” He was considered 17 runs below league average against heaters a year ago with only a .200 average.
So far, he has leveled that run value to 0 this season, aided by a .385 average against fastballs and just a 9% whiff rate against such pitches.
Lastly, a year ago he only had one hit on fastballs 97 MPH or above. He’s already doubled that in 2024.
Jake Bauers, a shortstop with the wrong hand
The Brewers traded for Jake Bauers two weeks into the offseason and he was quickly informed to just focus on first base for the Brewers. He was the primary option at first base until the Brewers signed Rhys Hoskins.
Many of us assumed Hoskins would assume the everyday duties at first base, but that has not been the case in the early going. 11 games in, Bauers has made six starts at first and Hoskins the other five. We do have to remember that Rhys missed an entire season due to a torn ACL in his left knee and to expect him to play everyday with no issues is unfair.
What many didn’t realize is Bauers has raised his defensive profile at first base the last few years. He developed from a -6 outs above average rating in 2018 with the Rays, to a +3 with the Guardians and Mariners in 2021.
He barely got the chance to play regular first base with the Yankees, but now the Brewers are enjoying a +1 OAA defender 11 games into the season. He is also tied for the MLB lead with four “scoops” from first base, despite only playing in six games.
The ripple effect remains to be seen: if Bauers is playing more first base, and Rhys is the primary DH, where does Gary Sánchez slide in? What about Garrett Mitchell when he returns? Bauers making first base a positive for the club defensively in the early going has made the roster decisions down the road a little bit cloudy.
Christian Yelich and his great start
Did you think I would go through this article without mentioning Yeli? Of course not. Let’st just start with the basics for Christian, his MLB ranks this year: 5 HRs (T-3rd), .737 SLG (4th), 1.146 OPS (6th), .481 wOBA (5th).
Wait, wOBA? What’s that? “Weighted on-base average” is a valuable tool to evaluate better than OPS with its intent to be an all-encompassing stat based on outcomes the player can control. The stat “weights” outcomes differently to give better value to all of the ways a player can reach base, as opposed to on-base percentage treating all times on-base equally.
Furthermore, we can use “xwOBA” to evaluate players. Before I lose you in the alphabet soup, Yelich is 5th in xwOBA as well at .458, which takes your StatCast batted ball data and calculates what your wOBA should be based on your quality of contact.
“But, Dom, I’m not interested in any of that stuff. Is he BACK?” Let me give you a few numbers that certainly suggest we are seeing a great version of Yelich.
First, he is pulling the ball with authority. He’s hitting .400 on balls that he has pulled this season, including three home runs. Yelich’s pulled homer tallies since 2021, in order are: 3, 5, 4, 3. Also, 50% of his hits have come to the pull side this year. Last year that number was 28%.
A factor to remember is the shift ban certainly helps Yelich. He found a niche being able to slap singles against an overshift and not worry about pulling the ball. For instance, in 2021, he only hit .240 on balls that were pulled.
Second, Yelich has maintained his plate discipline. Only an 18% strikeout-rate early (four points better than league average) and a 13% walk rate (five points better). And better yet, his chase rate, the amount of pitches swung at outside of the zone, is at 23% (five points better, again).
Third and finally, Yelich has had more plate appearances with men on than with the bases empty this season (24 vs 21). This is significant being the new everyday #3 hitter in Pat Murphy’s lineup. Whether it is Hoskins or Adames hitting behind him, pitchers are fearing this version of Yelich with traffic.
With runners in scoring position, Yelich is hitting .546 (6-for-11) and with men on overall he is hitting .450 (9-for-20). In both situations, he has more walks than strikeouts as a big reason for the Brewers leading baseball with runners in scoring position at .373.
We are 11 games in, I refuse to overreact, but I’m certainly not complaining about what we’ve seen from the Brewers’ veteran captain.
