Click here to read all 24 tiebreaker scenarios.
Green Bay is back in contention for the 2017 playoffs with three games left, but needs help – and not all the tiebreakers are clear.
Even with their scintillating 27-21 overtime win over Cleveland – their second OT win in eight days – the Packers remain:
– Two games behind the Carolina Panthers for the top playoff spots
– One game behind the Atlanta Falcons and Seattle Seahawks in the chase for the final two wild card berths.
The Packers even have a highly remote chance at winning the NFC North. They are three games behind the Minnesota Vikings, but would win a head-to-head conference-record tiebreaker with them.
The Packers would seemingly need to “win out” with the remaining games:
– 12/17: At Carolina (9-4)
– 12/23: vs. Minnesota (10-3)
– 12/31: At Detroit (7-6)
The final three games could definitely have Rodgers available based on his progress from a broken collarbone.
Here are the remaining games for each contender.
Minnesota (10-3, Packers would win conference-record tiebreaker for division title)
– 12/17: vs. Cincinnati
– 12/23: at Green Bay
– 12/24: vs. Chicago
Seattle (8-5, Packers would win head-to-head tiebreaker)
– 12/17: vs. Los Angeles Rams
– 12/24: at Dallas
– 12/31: vs. Arizona
Los Angeles Rams (9-4, Packers would win conference-record tiebreaker)
– 12/17: at Seattle
– 12/24: at Tennessee
– 12/31: vs. San Francisco
Carolina (9-4, Packers would win head-to-head tiebreaker if Green Bay wins on Dec. 17)
– 12/17: vs. Green Bay
– 12/24: vs. Tampa Bay
– 12/31: at Atlanta
New Orleans (9-4, would win head-to-head tiebreaker over Packers)
– 12/17: vs. New York Jets
– 12/24: vs. Atlanta
– 12/31: at Tampa Bay
Atlanta (8-5, would win head-to-head tiebreaker over Packers)
– 12/18: at Tampa Bay
– 12/24: at New Orleans
– 12/31: vs. Carolina
Dallas (7-6, Packers would win head-to-head tiebreaker)
– 12/17: at Oakland
– 12/24: vs. Seattle
– 12/31: at Philadelphia
Detroit (7-6, tiebreakers would not be applicable if Green Bay finishes 10-6 because they face each other, so they would beat Detroit on the way to going 10-6)
– 12/16: vs. Chicago
– 12/24: at Cincinnati
– 12/31: vs. Green Bay
As for who would win each tiebreaker based on each possible scenario, remember: Who owns tiebreakers can EASILY change based on results of games to come, especially if those tiebreakers don’t involve head-to-head play.
Remember the NFL tiebreaking rules involving three-team tiebreakers: the first knockout in a tiebreaker involves teams within their own division.
For example: If Green Bay, Atlanta and Carolina are all tied at 10-6 at the end, NFL rules say Atlanta and Carolina would have to first decide a tiebreaker between themselves before the “winner” would go against the Packers in a tiebreaker. That Atlanta-Carolina tiebreaker isn’t even clear yet, since they play in Week 17.
However, we have broken down all the tiebreaker scenarios for the Packers. There are 24 of them, where every team would be 10-6!
Two-way ties
– With Minnesota: Packers (conference record)
– With Dallas: Packers (head-to-head)
– With Atlanta: Falcons (head-to-head)
– With Carolina: Packers (head-to-head)
– With New Orleans: Saints (head-to-head)
– With Los Angeles: Unclear
– Common games – both currently 1-2, each with a common opponent to play – Green Bay vs. Minnesota on 12/23, Los Angeles vs. Seattle on 12/17
– With Seattle: Packers (head-to-head)
Three-way ties
– With Dallas and Atlanta: Falcons (head-to-head sweep)
– With Dallas and Carolina: Packers (head-to-head sweep)
– With Dallas and New Orleans: Unclear (Strength of victory tiebreaker)
– With Dallas and Los Angeles: Unclear (Strength of victory tiebreaker)
– With Dallas and Seattle: Packers (head-to-head sweep)
– With Atlanta and Los Angeles: Falcons (conference record)
– With Atlanta and Seattle: Falcons (head-to-head sweep)
– With Carolina and Los Angeles: Packers (conference record)
– With Carolina and Seattle: Packers (head-to-head sweep)
– With New Orleans and Los Angeles: Unclear
– Conference record
– If Saints finish 8-4, they would be tied with the Packers, whom they would then beat in a head-to-head tiebreaker
– If Saints finish 7-5, they would be tied with the Rams and behind the Packers who would win the tiebreaker
– With New Orleans and Seattle: Unclear
– Conference record
– If Saints finish 8-4, it goes to strength of victory tiebreaker which as of now, with three games to play, is unclear
– If Saints finish 7-5, they would be eliminated and the Packers would then win a head-to-head tiebreaker with Seattle
Four-way ties
– With Dallas, Atlanta and Los Angeles: Falcons (conference record)
– With Dallas, Atlanta and Seattle: Falcons (head-to-head sweep)
– With Dallas, Carolina and Los Angeles: Packers (conference record eliminates Panthers and Rams, then Packers win head-to-head tiebreaker with Cowboys)
– With Dallas, Carolina and Seattle: Packers (head-to-head sweep)
– With Dallas, New Orleans and Los Angeles: Unclear
– Conference record
– If Saints finish 8-4, they would be tied with the Packers and Cowboys (eliminating the Rams), which leads to a strength of victory tiebreaker which as of now, with three games to play, is unclear
– If Saints finish 7-5, the Saints and Rams would be eliminated and the Packers would win a head-to-head tiebreaker with the Cowboys
– With Dallas, New Orleans and Seattle: Unclear
– Conference record
– If Saints finish 8-4, all four teams would be tied, which leads to a strength of victory tiebreaker which as of now, with three games to play, is unclear
– If Saints finish 7-5, the Saints would be eliminated and the Packers would win a head-to-head tiebreaker with the Cowboys and Seahawks
Summing it up, in tiebreaker situations, the Packers must avoid having the same record as the Falcons, since they would lose all tiebreakers with them. Outside a head-to-head only with New Orleans, all other tiebreaker scenarios are either advantageous or unclear for the Packers.
Let’s just let the games play out. Stay tuned.
