We are roughly 1/16th into the season for the Brewers and for some, overreactions run rampant. There were plenty of 5-5 stretches for the Crew a season ago no matter how many ways you slice ten games, but the fashion in which the Brewers are 5-5 give a bit of a nod to 1987’s team streak.
There would still need to be a lot more sample size (and a lot more streaks) for the 2025 team to channel the fun ’87 club that won 91 games but missed the playoffs in the old qualification rules.
I wanted to take a deeper dive beyond the box scores from these first ten games to keep an eye on performances and notable outliers to monitor throughout the season. Let’s take a look:
69.3 MPH – Brice Turang’s bat speed
Starting the season with a 10-game hitting streak is impressive enough for Brice Turang and would be an easy pick for this column. But I wanted to dive deeper into the “how” he is hitting this season, because his hit tool has always been one of his best. This season, there’s more thump behind the contact, leading to a pair of homers to go with his .325 average.
It took until game 18 last season to connect on two homers, then another 29 until his third. Perhaps he won’t be waiting as long this season thanks to a boost of bat speed so far this season. Jumping from 66 MPH to 69 MPH may not sound like a significant jump, but StatCast tells us each MPH added equates to roughly six feet of air distance – or 18 feet in Turang’s case.
Furthermore, he’s just flat out hitting the ball harder too. He has already connected on four balls in play of at least 105 MPH, he only had seven and six in each of his first two seasons respectively.
.097 – William Contreras slugging percentage
There’s no way this number will finish this low by the end of the season. Contreras already hinted during Spring Training he will be much more willing to take days off this year to keep his body and mind fresh for the full season. Now he starts this six-game road trip after back-to-back days off thanks to Pat Murphy and the schedule.
These nine games are the worst stretch statistically of his career any way you shake it out. He is still waiting on his first extra-base hit and first run batted in of the season. One way to potentially unlock William? Try to see him pull the baseball more often, which has been a request for some evaluators in the game even back to his days as a member of the Braves. He has only pulled the ball 23% of the time whereas last season he finished with a 37% pull rate – matching a career-high.
1-for-22 – Christian Yelich vs fastballs this season
A season ago, Christian Yelich feasted on fastballs despite an injured finish to the year. He hit .323 against fastballs each of the last two years, but had a bit more slug (.554 vs .476) in 2023 than last year, suggesting how much the back problems really zapped his power in the summer before ultimately going through with surgery.
Yeli will not finish with a batting average vs heaters that begins with a zero. The one hit by the way? His no doubt homer against the Royals last Tuesday night. Pat Murphy has indicated that Yelich has hit into some bad luck so far and the numbers bear that observation out.
Seven of eleven “hard hit” balls this year for Yelich have resulted in outs. The recipe of his exit velocity still showing strong numbers, his bat speed has returned to pre-injury numbers, the last piece of the puzzle is reps and timing as he re-enters the rhythm of the season.
0 walks – Trevor Megill
Trevor Megill was perhaps the most underrated piece of the Brewers’ NL-best bullpen a year ago. Maybe we took it for granted that another member of this bullpen became a lights-out closer at the drop of a hat given the reputation of the Brewers’ organization.
The big righty only has one save opportunity so far this year (thanks to the amount of blowouts the Brewers have been in), but he’s a simple 1-for-1 in his 3.1 innings pitched this year. The most notable number in these columns is the “0” in his walk tally. Again, nobody goes an entire season without issuing a free pass, but to start with command is vital to Megill’s two-pitch mix.
His fastball is among the game’s best in “induced vertical break,” which translates to the ball’s “carry” through the strike zone staying true to his line. When paired as a top of the zone fastball and hammer curveball, Megill has two swing-and-miss pitches – the most important attribute as a closer.
21% walk rate – Rhys Hoskins
The theme of some of the Brewers’ biggest bats starting slow continues with Rhys Hoskins. Maybe grouped with Contreras’s and Yelich’s numbers, the fact the Brewers have clawed back to 5-5 is even more impressive.
I’ve had conversations with Rhys about his best seasons in Philly also coinciding with some of his best ball-strike recognition seasons. His 10.3% walk rate last season was his worst by decimal points, but far off from three of his first four years in the league that was north of 15%.
“The first [homer] is always the hardest,” said Rhys before an off day on Sunday. He feels like the balloon is about to pop thanks to his patience at the plate, but if the walk rate continues to stay above that 15% line, production should follow.
Sliders thrown, 1 – Chad Patrick
We knew the scouting report technically featured five pitches for Chad Patrick in the minor leagues. The three variants of fastballs (four-seam, cutter, sinker), a changeup, and a slider. The numbers tell us in the minor leagues he still threw the latter two more often that he has in The Show.
No really, he has only thrown one slider in three appearances as a Brewer. And don’t think the changeup has been thrown more often, he has only thrown 9 changeups so far too.
But why bother? He has only allowed six hits on his trio of fastballs, and only two singles specifically to lefties. The cutter specifically has them fooled with an 0-for-10 start and five strikeouts vs lefties with his signature cut fastball.
Specializing in the cutter has been a Brewers specialty under Chris Hook’s tutelage. The most prominent pupil of course is Corbin Burnes using the pitch to win the Cy Young award in 2021. There are only two teams that have thrown more cutters as a staff since 2021 than the Brewers … the Guardians and the Rays – which is the least surprising thing I think I’ve ever researched.
1-for-18 – opponents vs Freddy Peralta non-fastballs
Well let’s talk about secondaries with someone who is not known for them. Freddy Peralta’s second consecutive season as the Opening Day starter has delivered two great outings already. I talked about his curveball in last week’s Brewers Weekly, going a perfect 7-for-7 in swings and misses against the Royals.
Overall, all of his secondary pitches (changeup, curveball, slider) have held opponents to a miniscule average against. Currently, he has more strikeouts on these pitches combined than his fastball – which has never happened at season’s end for “Fastball Freddy.”
But the final pieces of development are on the horizon for Peralta to tap back into his 2021 form when he earned his only All-Star nod. The righty is looking to be a qualified pitcher for a third straight season and also maybe crossing the 200 strikeout plateau again. Peralta would join Yovani Gallardo (4x) and Corbin Burnes as the only other Brewers pitchers to have three consecutive seasons of at least 200 strikeouts.
9 for 11 stolen bases – Brewers
Ten games into the season a year ago, the Brewers had 17 stolen bases and only two men caught. To be fair, the Crew had the doors blown off in three consecutive games at the start of the season which hurts the environment for theft.
The biggest difference aside from the total is the dispersion. No Brewer has more than two steals so far, whereas last year Turang was running wild with seven in the first ten games of the year. One has to imagine that number will continue to increase as the year goes along.
To quote the late “The Man of Steal” Rickey Henderson: “Rickey stole because Rickey was on base!” As the cliché goes, you can’t steal first … and it’s probably not helpful to be down ten runs to steal either.
.452 BABIP – Sal Frelick
Batting average on balls in play is calculated exactly as it sounds. We take out your strikeouts and home runs, and ask “how many times are you reaching base while making contact?”
Sal Frelick’s start to the season is on-par with his elite bat control that got him to the Big Leagues just two years after he was drafted. Despite all of the scuttlebutt about Frelick’s positive weight gain during spring training, he insisted it was about sustaining a healthy weight throughout the marathon of a season rather than trying to hit more home runs.
Adding a few ticks of average exit velocity (he’s up two MPH) is nice, but Frelick continuing to put the ball in play is why he continues to hit fifth in the batting order. Pat Murphy recently explained that he hits fifth because statistics show it’s the slot in the order that leads off more innings than any other than the first.
So far, Frelick has led off ten innings and has reached base five times (.500 OBP).
158 hits – Jackson Chourio’s career
I wanted to take a long-term look for the rest of the season for Jackson Chourio. Plenty has been written about starting 0-for-5 with 5 K’s to where he is now – clocking two homers in Sunday’s finale vs Cincinatti.
Still the youngest player in the Majors, Chourio is going to attempt to chase down some recent baseball royalty by seasons. The Venezuelan will spend the entire season as a 21 year-old, and attempt to become only the 9th player since 1995 to reach 300 hits in his career before his 22nd birthday. The list has some extraordinary company.
- Edgar Renteria 1996-1998, 432
- Alex Rodriguez 1995-1996, 366
- Bryce Harper 2012-2014, 356
- Mike Trout 2011-2013, 354
- Starlin Castro 2010-2011, 346
- Adrian Beltré 1998-200, 338
- Juan Soto 2018-2020, 328
- Ronald Acuña Jr. 2018-2019, 302
