There are 725 days until the 2020 presidential election.
“I know people think it’s a long way out, but the reality is the Iowa caucuses are likely to be 15 months from now, if not sooner,” says Dr. Lara Brown, the director of the Graduate School of Political Management at George Washington University.
Iowa is key. Several high-profile Democrats have already visited the state recently, and experts say it won’t be long until some of them officially throw their hat in the ring.
“I would imagine we’re going to have some candidates announcing their runs either at the end of this year, so the end of December, or in the first two months of 2019,” says Brown.
Brown published a book on presidential nominations and elections called “Jockeying for the American Presidency: The Political Opportunism of Aspirants.”
Brown says Democrats can expect a crowded field, just like the Republicans had in 2016.
While no one has officially announced a party candidate, a list of potential candidates has been building for months.
“We’re going to have a lot of different Democrats from a lot of different regions, trying to make the argument they’re really the one to lead the party and bring the White House back to the Democrats.”
While it’s rare that an incumbent president loses a re-election campaign, Brown says President Trump is vulnerable.
“It’s evident after the 2018 elections that the Republican party’s base is shrinking,” she says. “They are not appealing to as many people as they used to. There’s now a 20-point split among women in terms of who and what party they favor.”