And so it begins. The 50th opening day in Milwaukee Brewers history dawns Thursday (51 if you count the one-off affair in Seattle). Seldom has one of the others held as much promise.
Brewers fans tired of hearing the phrase about the Crew falling a win short of a pennant last fall are anxious for a fresh start, one that ends with the local nine finishing the task. For many, nothing short of a National League pennant will do. For a team that became a competitor far sooner than many predicted after the mid-decade tear-down, no pie is too high in the sky. With an NL MVP in tow, a boost behind the dish and familiar line-up surrounding a tweaked batch of “out-getters,“ it's only human nature to expect more of the same and then some in 2019.
Let's pump the breaks just a bit.
Sure, it would be great if Christian Yelich repeats his '18 feats. Even if he puts up merely fabulous numbers instead of last season's eye-poppers, does anyone doubt the Brewers will still be able to push scads of runs over the dish? Add Yasmani Grandal's bat while hailing the re-signing of Mike Moustakas and, well, you can see this is a squad built to mash.
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The number to consider is 4,374. That's the number of outs Milwaukee out-getters have to secure during the course of a 162 game season, extra inning tilts not included. What sets the good teams apart from the bad is how much damage your foe does in between those occasions.Â
We can only hope Jhoulys Chacin and Milwaukee's other starters prove the experts wrong, those being the bloggers and talk-show gas bags who kept chirping about the Brewers needing “a big name arm“ to compete last season, claiming the rotation had too many holes.
Chacin and others achieved nicely and the bullpen was out of its collective mind with Josh Hader, assuring manager Craig Counsell of six to eight outs each appearance. As currently configured, Chacin is the linchpin of a rotation that's entirely right-handed, which tells you how much Counsell likes his relief options despite losing newly acquired Bobby Wahl for the season to a freak knee injury and Brent Suter going Tommy John. Add to that elbow tendon issue sidelining Corey Knebel and the shoulder problem plaguing Jeremy Jeffress, and one would wonder if this sense of optimism comes from reality or the bottom of a beer glass.Â
One MLB.com analyst has Milwaukee ninth in her power ratings. A Bleacher Report take lists the Crew as 12th. And, an ESPN survey of 31 of its leading baseball experts has Milwaukee finishing second to the Cubs in the NL Central, and in the middle of the pack as a Wild Card prospect. Chicago certainly seems better than how it fared in 2018–granted, for an “off“ season the Brewers still had to win a game 163 to snap a tie atop the division with the Bruins–and the rest of the gaggle only got better, the biggest gains made by the Reds, of all folks. St. Louis adds Paul Goldschmidt to a strong lineup and sports some big-league depth. And, they're the freakin' Cardinals, here to try to ruin our home opener Thursday afternoon.
Baseball's 162 game slate is among the most grueling in sports. It's also the most telling: streaks come and go over the course of those six-plus months, players get hurt and they heal. Phenoms own April and May before falling to Earth as the leaves change. Guys struggling to get their batting averages over the Mendoza line most of the summer can suddenly turn torrid down the stretch. Teams adjust–learning from that time they got swept over Easter weekend to reek havoc in a Labor Day rematch when the stakes may seem so much higher.
And then, there are injuries. Depth ultimately decides who wins these things, which is why fretting over who makes the Opening Day roster is such a waste of time.
The Brewers, more than anyone, proved that baseball as played in this part of the 21st century is about ability, availability and opportunity. Milwaukee used more than 50 players last season, the terminal at Mitchell International almost always sporting at least one player either coming down from the bigs or headed up to the majors. Counsell is about using everyone it takes to get those 27 outs, and others to make things happen when it's his team's turn at the dish. Those options only grow as summer becomes fall and rosters expand. Until then, a squad has to put itself in a spot to win. No one nails down a pennant in April, but many a team has lost a shot at one by the time the month ends.
4,374. That's a lot of outs for a pitching staff to nail down, preferably with as little tumult in between as possible. The moderately tamped-down Milwaukee expectations give the Brewers a chance to surprise, to sneak-up, to show the doubters wrong. Never forget GM David Stearns' ability to flesh in roster cracks mid-fight with just the right piece at the proper time. THAT, some good health, and expected results from the usual suspects leave the most optimistic of us ready to raise an NL pennant this fall.Â
Before that, though, there's that number to deal with: 4,374
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