No, the Green Bay Packers are not playing like future Super Bowl champions at this point of the season, but their 31-13 win at the New York Giants has them in an improved playoff position.
In fact, the 9-3 Packers have reasonable possibilities of not only winning the NFC North, but even gaining a first-round bye which they probably need for any realistic hope of reaching the NFC Championship Game, let alone Super Bowl LIV.
They have four games remaining:
– Dec. 8 vs. Washington
– Dec. 15 vs. Chicago
– Dec. 23 at Minnesota
– Dec. 29 at Detroit
Let’s break down each of their situations, with scenarios (all barring ties) based on the ESPN Playoff Machine:
NFC North race
As it stands, the Packers are a half-game ahead of the Minnesota Vikings in the division race.
The most obvious route to winning the North is simple: Win out. Win their final four games, and they take care of business by themselves.
However, the upcoming Minnesota-Seattle game on Monday night could play a huge part in determining their pathway to a division title.
If the Vikings lose, the Packers gain not only a one-game lead, but a key playoff tiebreaker on Minnesota. It means that with a Vikings loss in Seattle, the Packers would only need to win three of their remaining December games to clinch the NFC North – and one of those wins does not need to be against Minnesota.
Race for a first-round bye
The most obvious way for the Packers to gain at least a No. 2 seed and a first round bye is to, again, win out. But they will need some help, as New Orleans, San Francisco and Seattle all have just two losses.
Watch for the result of Sunday’s 49ers-Saints game in New Orleans. A win by San Francisco over the Saints could go a long way in helping the Packers get that coveted first round bye and home game in the NFC Divisional Playoff.
The Packers winning out, and a Saints loss to either San Francisco or Carolina in week 17, means a No. 2 seed. (Green Bay would gain the tiebreaker on the Saints due to one of those specific New Orleans losses.)
Race for the top seed and home field advantage
We’ve outlined how the Packers can leapfrog the Saints. But leapfrogging the winner of the NFC West is another matter.
Both Seattle and San Francisco have one fewer loss than Green Bay. They also both own tiebreakers on the Packers.
What this means is that along with the Saints falling down, both the 49ers and Seahawks have to lose twice for the Packers to gain the top seed, along with the Packers winning out.
That’s a very tall order, considering the two teams meet in the regular season finale in Seattle, so one of those teams will have to lose twice beyond those contests.
The race for home field may be far beyond the Packers’ reach. But a No. 2 seed isn’t out of the question, if the Packers take care of their own business.