If Aaron Rodgers is going to have the "injury-prone" label then it also has to be said that he is one tough player.  Rodgers gutted his way through a 313 yard, three touchdown performance against the Atlanta Falcons but that wasn't enough to stop the Falcons from nabbing a 27-24 win at Lambeau Field.  Rodgers certainly did his part and it was nice to see signs of life from the ground game but penalties and other miscues did in the Packers today.

The most frustrating thing to take away from the loss was the inability to get the defense off the field.  On Atlanta 's first drive the Falcons converted a third-and-six and also scored on a fourth-and-goal from the one.  Then in the second quarter it looked like the Packers made a stop but Patrick Lee was flagged for a very weak pass interference penalty.  Despite that, the Packers had Atlanta in a third-and-ten later in the drive and let the Falcons convert on a 26 yard pass play.  And of course, with less than two minutes left the Packers had one last chance to stop Atlanta and instead gave up a two yard gain to Michael Turner.

Penalties were also frustrating.  Aside from Lee's penalty, the Packers were flagged eight other times for 97 yards.  That's a lot to give up to a team like Atlanta .  Despite the 3-2 record, the Falcons are not among the NFC's better teams, at least not yet anyway.  While you can't give up penalty yardage like that, you certainly cannot give up big plays.  Turner racked up 121 yards on the ground and Roddy White notched eight catches for 132 yards in the first half alone (though it should be noted White was held without a catch in the second half.)

All those miscues covered up what was a very good day for Rodgers and Ryan Grant showed flashes of his old self with 83 yards on the ground.  The Packers ran only six plays in the first quarter and did not register a first down but the offense settled in and showed some rhythm on a number of drives.  However, when plays were needed to be made in the fourth quarter, Atlanta made them and the Packers didn't.  With a 17-all score the Falcons executed on special teams with a big kickoff return and a Jason Elam field goal.  Then Atlanta forced a critical turnover and from there Turner took over.  The lethal combination of penalties, miscues and a lack of execution when it was needed most took away from the gritty performance of Rodgers.     

Not to go into hyped-up overdrive mode, but Game One will be the most important game for the Brewers in the divisional series with Philadelphia.  Aside from the usual benefits of winning the first game and stealing homefield advantage, a lot is going to have to go right for the Brewers this afternoon.  Plus as you look ahead in the series, the Phillies will use the always-baffling Jamie Moyer in Game Three and while CC Sabathia gets the start tomorrow, you have to wonder how much longer he can continue to be effective pitching on three days rest.

Look at today's starting pitchers.  Yovani Gallardo starts for the second time since coming off an ACL injury.  If Gallardo can get five strong innings of work the Brewers might be in good shape but then you have to turn it over to the bullpen.  Although the bullpen performed well during the last week of the regular season, we know how streaky that group can be.  Meanwhile Philadelphia gives the starting nod to ace Cole Hamels.  Despite a 14-10 record, Hamels is a solid pitcher with a 3.09 ERA and the ability to get deep into the game. 

A big part of winning this first game will be getting to Hamels early.  That's easier said than done though as Hamels is 5-2 in his last nine starts.  Hamels went 14 innings and gave up only three runs in the two no-decisions so that tells you how tough it is to score on the lefty.  Hamels faced the Brewers during that stretch, going 6 1/3 while giving up two runs.  He also walked a season-high three batters, a number he reached multiple times during the season.  That would suggest the need to manufacture runs and although the Brewers showed signs of playing small ball under Dale Sveum, it's still not the preferred method for scoring runs.

Why is it so important to get early offense off Hamels?  Because late inning heroics are going to be scarce for the Brewers today.  Philadelphia's bullpen was brilliant down the stretch, other than the near meltdown against the Nationals on Saturday.  Closer Brad Lidge has been lights out all season, converting 41 saves in 41 opportunities.  Certainly the Brewers have not been as automatic as the Phillies in the ninth inning.  Meanwhile, setup guy Ryan Madson yielded all of one earned run in the month of September and was a huge part of Philadelphia's surge to the top of the NL East.  So today, you're dealing with a consistent starter who can go seven, a nearly-untouchable setup guy and an automatic closer.  Not exactly the way you'd like to start your first postseason appearance since 1982.

To get to this final day of the regular season with a chance to make the playoffs, the New York Mets got a gritty, complete game performance from Johan Santana.  But on the final day, CC Sabathia and the Brewers did one better.  Sabathia did what an MVP caliber player does with October at stake: he delivered.  Going the distance for the tenth time this year, Sabathia shut down the Chicago Cubs, giving up four hits while striking out seven. 

More importantly, his performance allowed a rather punchless offense to get its act together.  While fulfilling my Packers duties I kept an eye on the Major League Baseball scoreboard and all I saw was zeros.  No offense from the Brewers, no offense from the Marlins, and no offense from the Packers either.  Then Wes Helms, a former Brewer, swung for the fences for Florida.  Then in the eighth, finally, Ryan Braun came through for the second time this week.  When the ninth opened, there was no question the game was Sabathia's to win or lose.

Over the weekend somebody asked me who the NL MVP should be and I said a lot of that depends on what happens Sunday.  Hey, Ryan Howard has had a great year for the Phillies.  Considering he is the NL home run and RBI champ, there's a solid argument there.  However, the real question is who's the most valuable?  There is no doubt that without Sabathia, the Brewers don't win the wild card.  Just look at this last week, pitching regularly on three days rest, Sabathia yielded just eight hits and one earned run in a mind-boggling 16 innings worth of work.  

Howard's season-long barrage secured the NL East for the Phils but Philadelphia would still be in the playoff argument without him.  The Brewers became a different team when Sabathia was acquired in July.  And through it all, the near-disastrous sweep by the Cubs in late July, the sizzling August, the slumping September, through it all it came down to one guy.  That's why the Brewers are in the playoffs and Sabathia is the most valuable heading into October. 

The Mets win.  The Brewers lose.  So it comes down to the final day of the season and when the dust is settled we might still not know who the wild card team will be.  Ideally, you would've liked to see the Brewers clinch it today.  That means CC Sabathia could be saved for Game 1 of the NLDS instead of having to go out again on short rest (and if the Brewers make the playoffs Sabathia will likely once again have to start on short rest).  However, Johan Santana had other ideas.  Pitching on three days rest himself, Santana pitched an absolute gem for New York.  What he did today was incredible.  125 pitches on Tuesday then turns around and goes the distance today.

Certainly, the Brewers had their chances to stay a game up and at least clinch a tie.  It took forever against Ted Lilly, who must really love to pitch at Miller Park, but the Brewers started chipping away in the seventh.  However, when you've got bases loaded with one out like the Brewers did in the eighth and October is on the line, you need to deliver.  It's not like the Cubs were putting their A team out there either.  But you can't worry about that now.

Sabathia gets the start and everyone is reminded again, this is why you got him.  Is there anyone else in the NL you'd want out there tomorrow?  Meanwhile the Mets will start Oliver Perez against Florida's Scott Olson.  Perez got knocked around last time out against the Cubs but pitched well against the Marlins on August 29.  I'm sure Sunday will be both exciting and slightly gut-wrenching, as it always is when one playoff spot remains.  The Brewers no longer control their destiny so the only thing left to do is hand it to your ace and enjoy the ride one last time.

Well The Yost Guard is officially sunk.  And if you believe a lot of the talk around here, so are the Brewers playoff chances.  A 5 1/2 game wild card lead at the start of September evaporated in a very forgettable weekend in Philadelphia.  We all knew Ned Yost would get the majority of the blame if the Brewers didn't make the playoffs so apparently management decided to beat the rush and make the move two weeks early.  Rejoice, Yost haters!  Your time has arrived.  But now all the talk is about the timing of the move and how will the team react to such a jarring conclusion.

So here we have a lifeless team now going up against the NL's best on the heels of an unprecedented September firing.  Throw in the towel, right?  Well, hold on.  First, I checked the Major League Baseball rule book and apparently you only need to win the wild card by one game.  There's no clause that says if you start September with a 5 1/2 game lead you must end the month with a lead just as big.  Of course, after the Philly debacle, you wonder if the Brewers will get even one win, let alone the seven or so that'll be necessary to hold off the Phils. 

But there are two things to consider as this series with the Cubs begins tonight.  First, CC Sabathia is pitching tonight and will get two more starts before the end of the year.  Ben Sheets will also likely get three starts.  The top two guys will start half of the remaining 12 games.  All eyes are on the Brewers now and for two guys looking to strike it rich in the offseason, this is the perfect chance to prove they can pitch in the clutch.  Second, in a weird way, having Philadelphia sweep that series might be the best thing to happen to the Brewers chances of making the postseason.  Take a look at that NL East.  Once again the Mets are fading down the stretch and if there's a team other than the Brewers fighting desperately to ward off last year's demons it's the Mets.  New York is on the road this week and then has a big series against Chicago next week, a series that could be the division clincher for the Cubs.

It's been said that a thousand mile journey begins with the first step.  For the Brewers, the 1000 miles that make up the next 12 games begins tonight with the guy brought in to put the Crew over the top.  This is why you got Sabathia in the first place and with Yost out of the way, it's all up to Sabathia and company to take that first step.

With a 21-0 lead midway through the second quarter it looked like the Packers could put it on cruise control for the rest of the day. Aaron Rodgers had put up three touchdowns and was 16-20 in the first half. Detroit couldn't do anything on third down, had virtually no ground game and Jon Kitna was running for his life.

But this is the NFC North and even with Detroit nothing comes easy. Remember how the Lions fought back in the second half when the two teams met in Detroit last Thanksgiving? The Lions did it again. Rodgers went 6-13 from the start of the third quarter to the point in the fourth quarter when Detroit took the lead. Making matters worse, the Packers couldn't run the ball. Indeed, the Packers weren't effective running until the fourth quarter when Brandon Jackson put together some good runs. Ryan Grant ended with only 20 yards on 15 carries. It's pretty clear he is not at 100%.

But there are moments in the NFL that separate good teams from bad teams. A few of those moments took place in the final five minutes of the game. First there was the 60-yard catch-and-run by Greg Jennings. If there's one thing the Packers do well, it's rack up the yards after catch stat and Jennings, as he seems to do often, found a seam in Detroit's defense and took off. Not only did that stem the tide but it also got the Packers out of their end of the field. Throughout the second half Detroit chipped away due mostly to great field position. The Jennings catch set up the go-ahead field goal. Then Charles Woodson stepped up with a big interception. Give Woodson a lot of credit for getting himself ready for this game after missing practice all week. Jackson then put up two big runs, the second for a touchdown and that pretty much put it away. The Packers didn't even need the back-to-back to-the-house picks by Woodson and Nick Collins. So in that stretch the Packers got big plays through the air, on the ground, and created three turnovers.

The Packers now stand at 2-0 with two early division wins and with the losses to Minnesota and Chicago there's already some cushion. Of course, in this NFC North nothing can be taken for granted and the Packers know that more than any other team.

Apparently, Ted Thompson does know how to evaluate talent. Throughout the summer the organization made it clear Aaron Rodgers was the quarterback of the Green Bay Packers. Rodgers validated his spot under center with a smart, efficient performance over the Vikings on Monday Night Football. Rodgers didn't throw an incompletion in the second half and was nearly flawless in his decision making. But it wasn't all through the air. Rodgers scrambled eight times for 35 yards, giving the Packers an element that had been missing from the offense the past few years.

A big part of Rodgers's success was the pass protection. Minnesota's acquisition of Jared Allen was seen by some as the move that would put the Vikings over the top in the NFC North. But Allen was a non-factor as Chad Clifton did not allow the defensive end to disrupt the flow of the offense. Indeed, the only sack of Rodgers was called back, so kudos the entire offensive line for keeping Rodgers upright against a fierce defensive line.

Running against Minnesota is always a tough duty and tonight was no exception. Ryan Grant finished the night with 92 yards but 57 came on that big run in the fourth quarter. Take that away and Grant finished with a 3.2 yards per carry average. Brandon Jackson was a non-factor with only 12 yards. When you take the entire performance in, you have to be a bit concerned with those numbers and certainly very concerned with the number of penalties called on the offensive line.

Despite a new punter, snapper and holder the special teams performed well. Derrick Frost was solid, averaging more than 42 yards per punt. The coverage was very good and of course Will Blackmon's electric return gave the Packers a much-needed spark midway through a third quarter dominated by Minnesota.

After one game it's hard to tell if the Packers are still the team to beat in the North but at least for now the Packers sit atop the division with a hard-earned win over the Vikings.

1. Week One, Minnesota at Green Bay: Both teams have a division title in mind so a strong opening statement is key.  This is a battle of two quarterbacks out to prove they can win with the entire league watching.

2. Week Three, Jacksonville at Indianapolis: The Jaguars spent the entire offseason gearing up for one goal, winning the AFC South and that means beating the Colts.  Here's an early test for Jacksonville and it could be their best shot, who knows how Peyton Manning will hold up.

3. Week Three, Dallas at Green Bay: A rematch of last season's biggest NFC game.  The pressure is on the Cowboys here as Dallas opens the season at Cleveland, then Philadelphia at home.  It could be an early must-win situation for Dallas.

4. Week Six, New England at San Diego: This has turned into quite a rivalry with the Patriots stealing a playoff game from the Chargers in '06 then using San Diego as scrimmage fodder in Week Two of 2007 after the Spygate story broke.  Of course, the Pats got another playoff win over San Diego in January so the Chargers will be out for blood.

5. Week Nine, New England at Indianapolis: Patriots-Colts is becoming the best November tradition since Thanksgiving.  Once again, AFC bragging rights will be on the line.

6. Week Eleven, New York Jets at New England: These two teams meet in Week Two but by midseason Brett Favre should have command of a new playbook and chemistry with new receivers.  Remember, the Jets shocked New England in Foxborough two years ago.

7. Week Thirteen, New Orleans at Tampa Bay: This will be the second meeting between the NFC South's two best teams and with December looming, the inside track to a division title might be at stake.

8. Week Fifteen, New York Giants at Dallas: The Cowboys swept the regular season meetings but in the playoffs, the Giants won when it counted.  The sight of Brandon Jacobs firing a rocket at the play clock after scoring the go-ahead touchdown won't be forgotten by the Cowboys.

9. Week Fifteen, Cleveland at Philadelphia: Two teams that missed the playoffs last year but are geared up for a deep run this year, this will be a statement game for both teams on a Monday night.

10.  Week Seventeen, Cleveland at Pittsburgh: Archrivals squaring off with playoff implications at stake.  Can you ask for anything more from a regular season finale?

11. Week Seventeen, Dallas at Philadelphia: For the last two years the Eagles have beaten Dallas in December, sending the Cowboys into a tailspin each time.  This is another matchup that will have major playoff implications.

12. Week Seventeen, Seattle at Arizona: Why not complete the Week Seventeen trifecta with another matchup of the two best teams in a division.  The Cardinals won eight games last year and with Seattle weaker this year, this could be the chance for Arizona to get back to the playoffs for the first time in 10 years.   

Last weekend on the show, Greg Matzek and I made our predictions for the upcoming NFL season, so in case you missed it, here's a reiteration.  I'll start at the end.  Super Bowl XLIII will feature New England and Philadelphia with the Patriots putting an exclamation point on the title of Team of the Decade.  Hey, I've picked the Patriots to win the Super Bowl in four of the last five years and they still have the best roster in the NFL.  No 16-0 this year but that offense puts them a notch ahead of everyone else.

I see the Packers as a 9-7 team this year.  The schedule opens nicely with a home date against Minnesota and a road trip to Detroit.  The Packers had better start 2-0 because after Week Two they play five 2007 playoff teams in the next six games.  The season ends with two more division games so the Packers have the chance to start and finish strong against the NFC North.  I say 9-7 because I believe there is still plenty of talent on this team despite the absence of Brett Favre.  But this is not the 14-4 team of last year.  We've yet to see Ryan Grant healthy, there was some spotty play by the defense in the preseason, and of course Aaron Rodgers has to prove he can win the NFL.

I still don't understand the fascination with the Vikings this year.  Best defensive line and best one-two backfield combo in the NFL.  The rest is nothing to shout about.  Hey Ted Thompson haters, would you rather have Tarvaris Jackson under center?  Jackson showed some progression last year but he's not ready for prime time and he enters the season not at 100%.  Who is Jackson going to throw the ball to?  Bernard Berrian?  Maybe Chicago is the place where wide receivers go to die but former Bear Berrian and Sidney Rice aren't exactly the NFC's answer to Randy Moss & Wes Welker.  Adrian Peterson is a stud, no question about it but this year everyone will be game planning for Peterson.  If I'm a defensive coordinator, I'm stacking the box and forcing the Vikings to win games by throwing it.  I have Minnesota at 8-8, followed by Chicago at 7-9 and the ever-changing-yet-never-improving Detroit Lions at 4-12.

Dallas, New Orleans and Seattle win the other three divisions while Philly and Tampa Bay earn wild card spots.  AFC division winners will be New England, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis and San Diego.  Wild card teams will be Jacksonville and Denver.  I'm officially on the Bronco bandwagon this year.  Mike Shanahan does an incredible job of rallying his team.  He did it in 2000 (a playoff year) after an abysmal 1999 and again in 2005, getting the Broncos to the AFC title game after back-to-back playoff blowouts to Indy in '03 & '04.  In case you're wondering, I have the New York Jets at 8-8.  Certainly, Favre is an instant upgrade at quarterback but I still have questions about that offensive line despite the offseason improvements made by the Jets.

What a brutal loss for the Packers in Week Two of the preseason.  Aaron Rodgers was not sharp for a half's worth of work but this was a total team letdown tonight.  The Packers mustered just 14 yards on the ground in the first half, which was a big reason why the Packers struggled to move the ball.  The offensive line yielded six sacks and it basically comes down to consistency.  Until Mike McCarthy finds his starting five that unit will not jell.

Defensively the Packers held its own in the first quarter but from the second quarter on there was too many breakdowns in the secondary and the 49ers took advantage of third down, converting on eight third downs.  McCarthy admitted in his post game thoughts that the short week might not have allowed the Packers to be as prepared as he would've liked.  The 49ers on the other hand came in with an edge and held advantage throughout most of the night.

There were positives.  Jordy Nelson looked good on special teams again with two big second half returns.  Nelson may not climb up the depth chart early in the season, but the more he shows his ability on special teams, the better chance he has of getting more playing time later in the year.  Once again Kregg Lumpkin came in late and made a few eye-catching plays.  It was also nice to see Jon Ryan rebound from a bad Monday night with a few booming punts.  Unfortunately, he had plenty of opportunity to atone for his last outing.

Preseason is about showing what you can do and tonight San Francisco 's young wide receivers put on a show.  Other than the players mentioned above I didn't get that same sense from the Packers.  Green Bay 's leading receiver was Vernand Morency, who collected just one catch for 20 yards.  Statistically speaking there was not much else of note for the Packers.  Granted, much like Monday's game, it's only one look and there's only so much you can take away but it's back to the drawing board now for another short week.